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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


South Florida

Conference:Amer
Expected RPI:278.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:186
Current Record:10-22
Expected Record:10-22
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-22278.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Florida.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH60-59W100%0.0
11-13Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH53-63L0%0.0
11-15Stetson (325.0)ASunA72-75W100%0.0
11-19Indiana (125.0)B10A70-53L0%0.0
11-22Howard (339.0)MEACH75-52W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH72-61W100%0.0
11-26Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH47-65L0%0.0
11-30Elon (205.0)CAAA79-78L0%0.0
12-2Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA84-61L0%0.0
12-11FIU (295.0)CUSAH53-65L0%0.0
12-14Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH83-63W100%0.0
12-18Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH70-56W100%0.0
12-21Charlotte (323.0)CUSAH78-76W100%0.0
12-28Houston (18.0)AmerH60-79L0%0.0
12-31SMU (113.0)AmerA79-39L0%0.0
1-3East Carolina (274.0)AmerH65-67L0%0.0
1-7Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA95-57L0%0.0
1-13Cincinnati (6.0)AmerH55-78L0%0.0
1-17East Carolina (274.0)AmerA90-52L0%0.0
1-20UCF (84.0)AmerH69-71L0%0.0
1-25Tulane (175.0)AmerA75-80W100%0.0
1-28Houston (18.0)AmerA63-40L0%0.0
1-31Memphis (106.0)AmerH74-86L0%0.0
2-4Tulsa (89.0)AmerH54-63L0%0.0
2-7Connecticut (123.0)AmerA68-65L0%0.0
2-10Temple (52.0)AmerH55-73L0%0.0
2-14UCF (84.0)AmerA72-57L0%0.0
2-18Tulsa (89.0)AmerA73-61L0%0.0
2-24Tulane (175.0)AmerH68-79L0%0.0
3-1Memphis (106.0)AmerA51-75W100%0.0
3-4SMU (113.0)AmerH65-54W100%0.0
3-8Memphis (106.0)AmerN79-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Florida's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Florida's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Florida.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South FloridaAmer26.2426.2427.2727.27-11.93-11.93
MemphisAmer5.405.4061.2961.291.221.22
East CarolinaAmer3.903.9028.5728.57-1.67-1.67
UCFAmer3.883.8856.6756.670.520.52
HoustonAmer3.863.8677.4277.422.122.12
TulaneAmer3.853.8544.8344.83-0.40-0.40
TulsaAmer3.853.8558.6258.620.660.66
SMUAmer3.833.8351.6151.610.120.12
CincinnatiAmer2.452.4587.8887.881.861.86
Wichita St.Amer2.362.3677.4277.421.301.30
TempleAmer2.342.3451.6151.610.080.08
ConnecticutAmer2.342.3441.9441.94-0.38-0.38
Arkansas St.SB1.741.7431.0331.03-0.66-0.66
FIUCUSA1.731.7335.7135.71-0.49-0.49
CharlotteCUSA1.721.7218.5218.52-1.09-1.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.701.7055.1755.170.180.18
HowardMEAC1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
StetsonASun1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
IndianaB101.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC1.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
Eastern MichiganMAC1.641.6457.1457.140.230.23
Appalachian St.SB1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
ElonCAA1.591.5937.9337.93-0.38-0.38
Northern ArizonaBSky1.561.5613.7913.79-1.13-1.13
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.2315.6215.62-0.16-0.16
Little RockSB0.200.2020.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
South AlabamaSB0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.180.1824.2424.24-0.09-0.09
UABCUSA0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.166.676.67-0.13-0.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
DrexelCAA0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
MercerSC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LSUSEC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1032.3532.35-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CampbellBSth0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Loyola MDPat0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02